GW03 – Dream Team

Welcome to my weekly series of articles which provides an analysis of last GW dream team. I will provide you with some stats and information about each player in the dream team, analyze them and give my opinion on the player.

EXPLANATION OF STATS:

  • xG is expected goals,
  • xA is expected assists,
  • xGA is expected goals against,
  • xG/shot is expected goals per shot and xA/key pass is expected assists per key pass

Goalkeeper:

Lössl, Huddersfield, £4.5M, played vs: Cardiff, 9 points.

Embed from Getty Images

Points decomposition: playing time 2 points, clean sheet 4 points, saves 1 point, 2 bonus points.

Huddersfield’s fixtures are not the best in next few gameweeks and besides that they are not so good in the defense – lost 6-1 to City and 3-0 to Chelsea; Lössl’s total tally after three GWs is also equal to his GW3 score because he was not a starter so far this season; From GW1 his place was taken by Hamer who unfortunately got injured in the 12th minute of the last game; It remains to be seen who will start the next matches; Considering all that and the fact that there are better options at this price level, I would avoid buying Lössl; The only reason why Hamer could have been a good choice as a bench cover was his price of £4.0M.

Defenders:

Trippier, Tottenham Hotspur, £6.0M, played vs: Manchester United, 11 points

Embed from Getty Images

Points decomposition: playing time 2 points, clean sheet 4 points, assists 3 points, 2 bonus points; xG: 0.00, xA: 0.45, xGA: 1.40, shots: 0, key passes: 3, xG/shot: 0.00, xA/key pass: 0.15.

Trippier is being described in our article for the second week in a row; His next games are still rather tough with Watford (A), Liverpool (H) and Brighton (A); Trippier have started in the match against United but was replaced by Aurier in 75th minute due to injury; It is not known yet how long he will have to be sidelined but it didn’t seem to be serious; However there is still threat of Trippier being benched by Aurier in some games; RWB’s stats this week were much better with 0.15 xA per key pass and one assist; However he got quite lucky to keep a clean sheet as United got many chances and was just really poor at finishing them; One thing that changed was that Davies was benched for Rose which makes him also rotation prone; If you are not scared of your £6.0M defender being benched then Trippier looks good (especially when delivering assists for Kane and taking some set pieces) but I would wait until around GW6 for better fixtures.

Alonso, Chelsea, £6.7M, played vs: Newcastle, 11 points

Embed from Getty Images

Points decomposition: playing time 2 points, two assists 6 points, 3 bonus points; xG: 0.04, xA: 0.00, xGA: 0.21, shots: 1, key passes: 0, xG/shot: 0.04, xA/key pass: 0.00;

Alonso is an another player who is being analyzed in our article week by week; Chelsea’s next fixtures are still quite good with Bournemouth (H), Cardiff (H) and West Ham (A), giving him some clean sheets potential; Alonso has already gathered an astonishing 35 points in just three matches; In the last GW he got two assists, one of them is not reflected in his stats as it was a foul leading to the penalty and second one is not reflected there as it was a shot that got directed into the net by Yedlin (that shot had only 0.04 xG); However Chelsea lost their clean sheet from just 0.21 xGA; All in all I think that Alonso is overperforming his stats and his offensive returns will get a little lower; However Chelsea still has great clean sheet potential and Alonso’s real playing position was rather LM than LB (according to the heat map from the last game) so he is worth his price.

Monreal, Arsenal, £5.5M, played vs: West Ham United, 10 points

Embed from Getty Images

Points decomposition: playing time 2 points, goal scored 6 points, 2 bonus points; xG: 0.57, xA: 0.00, xGA: 1.38, shots: 1, key passes: 0, xG/shot: 0.57, xA/key pass: 0.00.

Arsenal’s next fixtures are amazing as they are playing Cardiff (A), Newcastle (A) and Everton (H); So far they didn’t keep a clean sheet but had some tough opponents; Monreal also didn’t play in the first game but his stats were rather average in the second game; He was a good asset last year due to his offensive play an quite a low price (comparing to other LB/RB options from top teams); This year his position was taken by Kolasinac who got injured and will not play for the next two months; Also Maitland-Niles who was a threat to Monreal’s minutes will probably be sidelined until November due to an injury; Monreal’s upcoming good fixtures, being nailed on, offensive potential and quite low price make him worth being included in your team; He is also owned by only 1.5% of players so he might be a good differential.

Maguire, Leicester, £5.5M, played vs: Southampton, 10 points

Embed from Getty Images

Points decomposition: playing time 2 points, goal scored 6 points, 2 bonus points; xG: 0.01, xA: 0.29, xGA: 0.45, shots: 1, key passes: 1, xG/shot: 0.01, xA/key pass: 0.29.

Leicester’s next fixtures are quite hard with Liverpool (H), Bournemouth (A) and Huddersfield (H); They’ve kept a clean sheet only against Wolves and will probably not be able to get one against Liverpool; Maguire is also one of the middle two so it is doubtful if he keeps on scoring (although he is a huge aerial threat); He got only one shot last game and it was a really low quality one (in terms of xG), so he probably not get many goals in next games; For a price of £5.5M there are some other better options but if you trust Leicester to keep some CS then Maguire might get some nice returns – although you should wait until GW5 to bring him in; However I would not recommend moving to him as there are just better picks both in his price range and among Leicester defenders.

Midfielders:

Lucas Moura, Tottenham Hotspur, £7.1M, played vs: Manchester United, 15 points

Embed from Getty Images

Points decomposition: playing time 2 points, two goals scored 10 points, 3 bonus points, -1 yellow card; xG: 0.56, xA: 0.07, xGA: 1.40, shots: 2, key passes: 1, xG/shot: 0.28, xA/key pass: 0.07.

Spurs’s next fixtures were already described as still tough in the Trippier’s analysis; Lucas got also one goal in GW2 however in the last game he got two goals from two shots so he did not have many chances; He also averaged xG equal to 0.28 per shot which is a sign of rather high quality chances; Biggest issues with Moura (besides deciding whether he can keep his good form) is that his starting spot is not 100% sure; Son is due to return after GW4 and there is also Lamela coming back after injury; There are also some nice option in his price bracket (like Mkhi) or a little cheaper (Walcott); In my opinion there is just too much hype around Lucas and in the long run you will be better of buying someone else with similar potential/underlying stats who is more nailed on.

Seri, Fulham, £5.4M, played vs: Burnley, 9 points

Embed from Getty Images

Points decomposition: playing time 2 points, goal scored 5 points, 2 bonus points; xG: 0.02, xA: 0.13, xGA: 1.57; shots: 1, key passes: 4, xG/shot: 0.02, xA/key pass: 0.03.

Fulham’s next opponents are Brighton (A), Manchester City (A) and Watford (H); Seri is a starter for Fulham but he plays as a DM (which can be confirmed looking at heat maps); He got some key passes last week but they were rather low quality ones (averaging only 0.03 of xA) and only one shot of xG equal to 0.02 which led to a goal; Stats like that are not an indication of future returns in FPL; Seri’s price is also quite high comparing to players like Kante who is playing in more advanced role for a better team and is a little cheaper; I wouldn’t want Seri anywhere near my team unless he changes his position or his price falls to around £4.5M.

Forwards:

Mitrovic, Fulham, £6.6M, played vs: Burnley, 16 points.

Embed from Getty Images

Points decomposition: playing time 2 points, two goals scored 8 points, assists 3 points, 3 bonus points; xG: 1.00, xA: 0.08, shots: 4, key passes: 1, xG/shot: 0.25, xA/key pass: 0.08.

Fulham’s next games were already mentioned above – unfortunately they are not the best ones; Mitrovic’s stats are really good, they are a little better than Aguero’s were when he got a hat-trick in GW2; Mitrovic got a few times into dangerous positions and finished half of his chances getting two goals; With a price of £6.6M he really is a great prospect and I think that this time he will succeed in the Premier League; Mitrovic is a little cheaper than players like Zaha and Fulham after their summer rebuilding is playing good offensive football; The only issue is their fixtures which are rather average but Mitrovic was already able to score against Spurs so I think he can return some points also in the next three GWs; For me Mitrovic is an easy pick however if you don’t want to risk then you might consider waiting until GW6 when he will be past fixtures against Brighton an Manchester City.

Kane, Tottenham Hotspur, £12.5M, played vs: Manchester United, 10 points

Embed from Getty Images

Points decomposition: playing time 2 points, goal scored 4 points, assists 3 points, 2 bonus points, -1 yellow card; xG: 0.38, xA: 0.44, shots: 2, key passes: 1, xG/shot: 0.19, xA/key pass: 0.44.

Kane is the third of Spurs players making this week’s dream team; His fixtures are not the best but his underlying stats in the last game were good; He will probably get to score a few and maybe get some assists in the next GWs as he is the main finisher for Spurs and was often the top scorer in the Premier League; Also his team starts to find their form, winning against United 3-0 in the last game; The main issue is Kane’s price and the problem of owning Salah, Aguero and Kane in the same time; In that case it is up to you which of those players you will choose; Getting more than two is pointless and for me Liverpool and City are better teams as for now; Moreover Salah and Aguero provide better return per £1M of value (Aguero due to being cheaper an Salah getting more points for being a mid); To sum up so far Kane doesn’t justify his price but you should keep an eye on him as he might soon become a better option than other premium players.

Article written @Mikhathara if you like what you’ve read give him a follow on twitter.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s